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Forecast and Analysis of Development Prospect of Large Forging Industry

Date:2017-5-6     Views:2616

 According to the definition of large-scale casting and forging by China Forging Association, large-scale forging refers to the free forging produced by hydraulic press of more than 1000 tons, free forging hammer of more than 5 tons, and the forging produced by hot forging equipment of more than 6000 tons and die forging hammer of more than 10 tons. Products with high comprehensive performance requirements, complex technology and special customization are mainly used to manufacture key and important components of major equipment, such as steam turbine spindle and rotor, marine forgings and metallurgical rolls.

Large forgings are divided into large die forgings, large free forgings, rings and large caliber thick wall seamless pipe fittings. The free forgings produced by hydraulic press or hammer with more than 1000 tons of free forging are large free forgings. The forgings produced by 6000 tons or more die forging press, 8000 tons or more die forging hydraulic press or 10 tons or more die forging hammer are large die forgings. Large forgings have strict internal quality requirements and are difficult to produce.

The large forging industry is a manufacturing industry in which scrap steel, pig iron and alloy materials are manufactured into key components matching with related industries through smelting, forging, heat treatment and mechanical processing processes.

Classification of Large Forging Products

Large forgings are widely used in heavy machinery, steel rolling equipment in metallurgical industry, power generation equipment in electric power industry, weapons and aerospace industry, petroleum, chemical industry, shipbuilding, locomotive and vehicle equipment. Large forgings are typical key components of major equipment. They can be used as spare parts of large equipment in various industries independently, such as hot-rolled backup rolls for rolling mills, cold-rolled work rolls, non-magnetic retaining rings for thermal power units, etc. They can also be used as important stress components of major equipment in various industries, such as high, medium and low pressure rotors of steam turbines in thermal power units, cylinder block and water of steam turbines. Turbine shaft, runner body, nuclear reactor pressure vessel, nuclear reactor pressure shell, nickel-based alloy turbine disk for aircraft, etc.

Large forgings can be divided into the following categories according to their uses: aircraft forgings, diesel engine forgings, marine forgings, weapons forgings, petrochemical forgings, mine forgings, nuclear power forgings, thermal power forgings and hydroelectric forgings.

Figure 1: Large forgings classified by purpose

  1. 大型锻件行业发展前景预测分析
  2. Policy Environment Analysis of Large Forging Industry

    (1) Management System of Large Forging Industry

    The industry management system of large forging industry is the macro-control of government functional departments (mainly the National Development and Reform Commission) combined with the cooperation norms of industry self-discipline organizations, which are mainly China Heavy Machinery Industry Association and China Forging Association.

    The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is mainly responsible for macro-control of the large forging industry: responsible for the formulation of industrial policies, supervision and inspection of their implementation; research and formulation of industrial development plans to guide industrial restructuring, industrial restructuring, technological progress and technological transformation. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and its branches around the country shall examine and record the investment in industrial projects.

    China Heavy Machinery Industry Association is a national industry organization engaged in research, design, production, complete sets, education and other departments of heavy machinery, such as metallurgical calendering machinery, mining machinery, lifting and transportation machinery, heavy forging and pressing machinery. The main functions of the association are: to formulate and supervise the implementation of industry norms and standardize industry behavior; to formulate industry development plans and industrial policies for the government; to assist in the management of industry national standards; to be responsible for the organization, revision and management of industry standards; to carry out industry statistical investigation; to participate in quality management and supervision; and to appraise scientific and technological achievements of the industry.

    China Forging Association is a national voluntary organization of forging and stamping enterprises, scientific research, design, teaching, equipment and material supply units in China. The main functions of the association are: to act as a bridge between the government and industry enterprises; to provide business information; to provide technical and advisory services; to organize large-scale international exhibitions, international conferences and international exchanges; to promote Sino-foreign cooperation, import and export, and to organize international visits and other services.

    (2) Development Planning for Large Forgings

    The development of large forgings is directly related to the development of new industries such as ships, offshore oil equipment, water conservancy engineering equipment, new energy and wind power, so it is also one of the key industries in the 12th Five-Year Plan.

    Outline of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development

    In March 2011, the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Outline for National Economic and Social Development was issued. The Outline of Planning puts forward that in order to promote the adjustment of key industrial structure, equipment manufacturing industry should improve the level of basic technology, basic materials, basic components research and development and system integration, strengthen the research and development and industrialization of major technical equipment sets, and promote the intellectualization of equipment products. Promote the transformation of equipment manufacturing from production-oriented manufacturing to service-oriented manufacturing, and promote product numerical control, green production and enterprise informatization. The equipment needed to develop strategic emerging industries and infrastructure and other key areas. We will promote specialized production of foundry, forging, welding, heat treatment and surface treatment. Raise the level of basic components such as bearings, gears, abrasives, hydraulic and automatic control.

    In the field of high-end equipment manufacturing industry, the Outline of Planning proposed that the equipment manufacturing industry should focus on the development of aviation equipment, satellite and application, rail transit equipment and intelligent manufacturing equipment. In aviation equipment, we will vigorously develop a series of regional aircraft, focusing on breaking through key engine technology and air management system; in rail transit equipment, we will improve the level of autonomy of key components, form independent innovation system and modern industrial clusters, and focus on the development of high-speed trains, transit trains, inter-city and urban express rail vehicle train operation control systems. In the field of intelligent manufacturing equipment, we focus on promoting precision and intelligent instruments and test equipment, intelligent control system, key basic components, high-grade CNC machine tools and intelligent special equipment to realize automation, intelligence, precision and greening of production process.

    Large forging technology belongs to the basic technology, so it is also one of the key projects to promote development in the 12th Five-Year Plan.

    ◆National Science and Technology Development Plan for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan

    In July 2011, the National "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Science and Technology Development" was officially released and implemented. The Plan has deployed the strategic tasks of scientific and Technological Development and independent innovation in China in the next five years, highlighting the following key points: first, to accelerate the implementation of major national science and technology projects; second, to vigorously cultivate and develop strategic emerging industries; third, to promote breakthroughs in key key key technologies in key areas; fourth, to prospectively deploy basic research and cutting-edge technology research; fifth, to strengthen the base of scientific and technological innovation; and Platform construction, six is to vigorously train and bring up innovative scientific and technological talents, seven is to enhance the level of scientific and technological openness and cooperation.

    The large forging industry belongs to the high-end equipment manufacturing industry in the national strategic emerging industry, and the large forging technology belongs to the key technology of basic parts. Therefore, the technology development of the large forging industry is encouraged in the "Plan".
  3. Analysis of Development Situation of Large Forging Industry
    According to the Foresight Industry Research Institute's report on the forecast and transformation and upgrading of the development prospects of China's large-scale forging industry in 2015-2020, it is shown that for a long time, the development idea of emphasizing the main engine and neglecting the matching parts in China has made the large-scale forgings, hydraulic parts, seals and other basic parts a bottleneck restricting the development of China's large-scale complete sets of equipment. These components look small, but their economic benefits are considerable, and have a strong strategic significance. The equipment manufacturing industry adjustment and revitalization plan issued in May 2009 has played a real role in promoting the technological level of large forgings. From the technical point of view, the state has continuously increased the nationalization of major equipment. Large forging enterprises such as one heavy, two heavy, too heavy and CITIC Heavy Industries have invested heavily in technological research to improve the technological level and production capacity of large forgings, especially nuclear power forgings. At present, China has formed a manufacturing base for large forgings and reactor pressure vessels.
    In 2013, the output of large forgings in China reached about 860,000 tons, and the output value increased to 197.7 billion yuan. At the same time, the consumption of large forgings in China increased to 174,000 tons, which is still highly dependent on foreign imports. The market demand of heavy machinery during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is still good on the whole. In the next few years, the development of electric power, petrochemical, metallurgical, shipbuilding and other industries in China will play a huge role in promoting the development of large forging industry.
    Analysis of Five Competitive Forces Model of Large Forging Industry
    (1) Analysis of the Competition Pattern within the Industry
    At the beginning of its formation, China's large forging industry was guided by the government's plan. It began to operate under the planned economic system and was first developed by large state-owned enterprises. Since the reform and opening up, with the steady progress of market economy construction, more and more powerful small and medium-sized enterprises engaged in large-scale forging production have emerged and gradually formed a scale. With flexible mechanism, keen market insight, good concentration in the market segments, rapidly improving R&D strength and strong profitability, they have gradually formed a strong position in the field of subdivision. Competitive advantages complement and complement the advantages of large state-owned enterprises.
    Under the influence of market positioning, competitive advantage, capital strength and other factors, China's large forging enterprises have gradually formed three stable camps, each focusing on different downstream industries:
    The first camp is a large state-owned enterprise represented by heavy, duplex, Huarui Steel Casting and CITIC Heavy Industries. It usually has hydraulic presses of more than 6000 tons. It mainly provides super-large forgings and large marine engineering equipment for large and super-large ships, large nuclear power plants and large hydropower stations. It also accepts the strategic task of the state to develop military products and research and develop advanced technology. It has a complete industrial chain of molten steel smelting, large forging production, complete equipment manufacturing and large machinery manufacturing. The capacity is usually over 100,000 tons.
    The second camp was established and gradually developed after the reform and opening up, and has formed small and medium-sized enterprises of scale, usually mainly private enterprises. The echelon enterprises usually have 1000-6000 tons of hydraulic press, located in large, medium and small ships or super-large ship equipment, large and medium-sized components, marine engineering equipment components, power, petrochemical machinery equipment accessories, production capacity is usually 20,000-100,000 tons. Excellent private enterprises stand out in this camp, and have gradually formed unique advantages in the field of subdivision, showing excellent profitability.
    The third camp is the small-scale enterprises which have not formed the scale except the above two echelons. Their productivity is low and their competitiveness is relatively weak. Considering the factors such as product, economic benefit and equipment utilization efficiency, the three camps have formed a relatively stable market position and competition pattern, and based on the differences in their respective subdivision areas and their respective competitive advantages in the subdivision areas, they compete with each other but complement each other. At present, the first camp and the second camp occupy the main market share, in which the market share of the first camp enterprises is more than 60%. In the last three years, the competition pattern has not changed significantly. Without major changes in macroeconomic and political environment, the reasonable competition pattern is expected to continue.
    (2) Analysis of the Upstream Bargaining Ability of the Industry
    The raw materials used in large forging industry are mainly steel, scrap, pig iron, ferroalloy and other metal products. Because these raw materials are widely used, their market prices are mainly affected by macroeconomic fluctuations. In addition, for steel, scrap, pig iron, ferroalloy and other metal products, the consumption of large forging industry is only a small part of its overall market, and can not make a greater impact on it; compared with large forgings, steel, scrap, pig iron, ferroalloy and other metal products are the basic raw materials for their production, and their substitutability is weak. Generally speaking, the bargaining power of large forging industry to its upstream sellers is weak.
  4. (3) Analysis of the downstream bargaining power of the industry

    The buyer's means of industrial competition are to depress the price, demand higher product quality or obtain more service items, and profit from the antagonism between the competitors, all at the expense of the profits of the production enterprises. If there are many brands available in the market, and the product performance difference between brands of the same grade is not large, this gives the buyer more choice space, and the buyer can collect sufficient product price information from the industry through market research, so that the buyer can grasp more bargaining chips, make it in a favorable position, and ensure that he gets the most from the seller. Excellent price. At present, there are many kinds of large forgings, and the gross interest rates of different products and batches are different. The gross interest rates of large forgings for heavy machinery and equipment differ greatly from that of large high-end forgings. This gap is mainly caused by the proportion of added value of products. Therefore, the bargaining power of large forgings industry to the downstream is mainly due to the proportion of added value of products. Its technological level is determined.

    (4) Threat analysis of new entrants in industry

    China's large forging industry has high technical barriers, management and talent barriers, capital barriers and qualifications barriers. For investors with insufficient technology precipitation, lack of innovative ability to cope with market changes, insufficient financial strength and weak industry qualifications, the entry barriers of the industry are higher, so the threat from new domestic enterprises is relatively small. However, as the processing base of the world manufacturing industry will gradually shift to the developing countries in the future, the focus of manufacturing capacity of some large forgings in developed countries will also shift to the developing countries. The new entrants threats faced by domestic large forging enterprises mainly come from the threats of large forging enterprises abroad.

    (5) Analysis of industry substitution threat

    Since 2006, there has been an upsurge of investment and construction of large-scale free forging equipment in various parts of the country, and large-scale free forging hydraulic press has been mounted in succession in various parts of the country. However, in the upsurge of investment and construction of large-scale free forging equipment in our country, only part of the equipment is increased according to the needs of product development, while others have some blindness. Large-scale free forging production belongs to high technology, high investment, high energy consumption and high pollution industry. In the future, relevant departments of the state will further formulate policies to optimize the product structure of the industry. Large-scale free forging products will be replaced by more energy-saving, efficient and environmental protection products. Therefore, the substitution threat faced by large forging industry is mainly the substitution of new energy-saving and environmental protection high-end products for traditional products with low efficiency, high pollution and excessive market supply.

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